Helena Valley West Central, MT 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

177
FXUS65 KTFX 260959
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
359 AM MDT Thu Mar 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate snowfall will affect Central Montana until about 9 AM
  this morning.

- It will be a cool day today, but turns warmer on Friday.

- After a mild day Saturday, it once again turns cooler on Sunday
  over North Central MT.

- It is looking unsettled for much of next week, with a good
  amount of mountain precipitation expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

 - Meteorological Overview:
A moist upper level system is moving from west to east across
Central MT this morning. Good snow accumulations are occurring
from Raynesford to Grass Range this morning. Thus a winter weather
advisory has been issued for this area. Otherwise, some light
showers will be possible over mostly the Rocky Mountain Front and
Southwest MT today. Also it will be much cooler today, especially
over North Central MT.

For Friday and Saturday, and upper level ridge builds over the
CWA. This will allow for warmer air to move back into the region.
Overall, Saturday should be the nicer of the 2 days.

On Sunday, a weak cold front is now forecast to slip southward
from Canada into North Central MT. This will result in cooler
temperatures over North Central MT, but overall it is mostly going
to be a dry front, so little/no precipitation is expected on
Sunday at this time.

For Monday through Thursday of next week, we will transition to a
moist westerly flow, with several upper level disturbances moving
from west to east across the CWA. This will result in periods of
rain/snow over the CWA, with the mountains likely receiving most
of the precipitation. Temperatures will likely be above normal on
Monday, but cool to below normal for the rest of the week.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Snow amounts of 2 to 4 inches look likely from Raynesford to Grass
Range this morning, especially on grassy areas. Some isolated
amounts around 6 inches are possible. Conditions should improve
after 8 AM.

Afternoon temperatures over North Central MT will be tricky on
Sunday, as a back door cold front is now progged to move southward
through North Central MT. Should this front not push as far south,
temperatures could be a bit warmer on Sunday.

For most of next week, there is less than 20 percent chance for 2
inches of snowfall at lower elevations. However, several days of 4
to 6 inches of snowfall are looking likely in the mountains. After
3 days of this type of snowfall, total snow accumulations in the
mountains next week could range from about 10 to 20 inches. Thus
some winter statements might be needed for portions of the CWA
next week. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
26/12Z TAF Period.

Light snow will affect Central MT until about 15z, then just an
isolated shower possible elsewhere into the afternoon. It will be
dry, with clearing skies overnight. Some patchy fog might be
possible around Lewistown on Fri morning with recent snow.
Mountains/passes obscured through the morning today. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  22  59  34 /  10   0   0   0
CTB  37  17  54  25 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  46  23  60  30 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  49  19  59  28 /  20   0   0   0
WYS  47  11  53  17 /  20   0   0   0
DLN  49  22  61  30 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  38  17  57  27 /  20   0   0   0
LWT  42  19  52  32 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for Fergus
County below 4500ft-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Little
Belt and Highwood Mountains-Snowy and Judith Mountains.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls